Where are interest rates headed during the week of September 8, 2014?

By | September 8, 2014

Very good question but the US Economic Calendar for the Week of September 8, 2014 may hold some clues!

The economic calendar provided in this article gives the days and times for this weeks key statistical releases.

This data will contain information that may potentially impact the direction of US interest rates and how far and how fast they may move in the short and intermediate-term. Any move up or down in rates will have an impact on the mortgage and real estate markets as well.

As a rough gauge of US economic strength, currently the 10-year Treasury note is yielding 2.43% which is slightly higher than the lowest level of the past year.

This move down in rates (see graph below) seems to indicate several things. The first is that market participants do not believe the Fed will be raising rates any time while the second is that there may be a belief that the US economy is not as strong as headline data may be suggesting.

In addition, given the degree of geopolitical angst in the world, part of the drop in yields could also be due to a flight to quality trade as investors seek a safe haven in US government bonds.

The economic information scheduled for release will provide investors and businesses with both anecdotal evidence about the direction that the US economy is heading along with actual data about its current condition.

Further, in a week that’s somewhat quiet concerning economic data releases, some of the headline reports that will be most closely scrutinized by market participants, the Fed, politicians and investors includes the Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment and Home Purchase Applications.

In the upcoming week scheduled speeches by members of the Federal Reserve includes only Daniel Tarullo although impromptu comments or remarks can potentially occur at any time.

And finally, as has been the case for some time now, the markets will also be closely watching geopolitical hotspots that have the potential for serious flare-ups with global implications.

Currently on the front-burner geopolitically are the following crises, some with conditions that have changed over the past week and others that remain static. It is also a list that unfortunately continues to grow:

  • How will the US and any international coalition deal with the spread of ISIS, the terrorist organization that makes al-Qaeda seem tame,
  • Israel-Hamas conflict,
  • Russia-Ukraine conflict and ceasefire,
  • Crisis at the US-Mexico border,
  • The Ebola breakout is off the front pages but remains active having the potential to spread,

Courtesy of Econoday this is the chart of the US economic data to be released during the week of September 8, 2014 along with scheduled speeches by members of the Federal Reserve. The chart below also includes the upcoming treasury auction calendar!

Monday Sep 8
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
JOLTS
10:00 AM ET

Daniel Tarullo Speaks
10:00 AM ET

Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
Weekly Bill Settlement
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET

Equity Settlement
9-11-14Equity Settlement
9-12-14Equity Settlement
9-15-14Equity Settlement
9-16-14Equity Settlement
9-17-14

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Written by Michael Haltman, President of Hallmark Abstract Service, New York.

HAS is a provider of title insurance in New York State for residential and commercial real estate transactions specializing in the areas of New York City, Long Island and Westchester.

Remember that you have the right to choose your own title company (click here to learn more)!

If you have any questions you can reach Michael by email at mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com.

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