Week of October 13, 2014: It’s all about geopolitics and disease!

By | October 14, 2014

Update 2:30 PM, October 14: In another sign that market players have concerns about the global economic outlook, crude oil ended the day down about $4 settling in the low $80-range! 

Under the assumption that most Americans would like to keep an eye on their money, the US Economic Calendar for the week of October 13, 2014 is a great tool to have at your disposal!

This weeks key economic releases and corporate earnings hold what may be some helpful clues concerning the strength of the US economy and the direction that interest rates may move both in the near and intermediate term, although geopolitics and disease may take center stage instead!

Any significant move in government bond yields is important to monitor because movement either up or down will have an impact on mortgage rates and by extension the health of the real estate market as well.

But, if the move in Treasury’s appear to be due more to a flight to quality trade then the overall strength of the economy or inflation fears, the bond yield discussion becomes much murkier.

Current Yield

The 10-year US treasury note is currently yielding 2.23%, down a staggering 21 basis points from the same time last week.

Is this significant move down in rates all about the economy, or is it once again due to the geopolitical angst surrounding our anemic effort to stop ISIS coupled with the non-spread spread of Ebola in the United States!

Looking at the financial reasons why market participants may feel that Fed impetus to raise rates might be waning could also be due to a belief that the US economy is not as strong as advertised and that inflation is under control.

Addressing just one of these areas, one would logically have to assume that the potential for a calming geopolitical environment at any point in the near future is not in the cards and that the flight to quality trade will be with us for the immediate future!

The US Economic Calendar

The economic data scheduled for release this week will provide investors and businesses with both anecdotal evidence about the direction that the US economy is heading along with actual data about its current condition.

The upcoming week offers a fairly significant array of economic data releases with some of the headline reports that will be most closely scrutinized by market participants, the Fed, politicians and investors including the Philly Fed Survey, Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Corporate Earnings, Housing Starts and Consumer Confidence.

It’s also going to be relatively robust week as far as scheduled speeches by members of the Federal Reserve goes, with the added proviso that impromptu comments or remarks by them can potentially occur at any time. Scheduled to speak this week are Charles Plosser, Esther George, Dennis Lockhart, James Bullard and Narayana Kocherlakota.

Finally, once again the markets will also be closely watching geopolitical hotspots that have the potential for serious flare-ups with global implications.

Currently on the front-burner geopolitically are the following crises, some with conditions that have changed over the past week and others that remain static. It is also a list that unfortunately continues to grow:

  • Continued ineffectiveness on the part of the United States to deal with ISIS, the terror group that is taking over territory in Iraq and Syria with impunity and is currently on the doorstep of Baghdad,
  • The threat that the spread of ISIS could, or potentially already has, moved to the United States,
  • Israel-Hamas conflict that currently simmers but that has the potential to boil over at any time,
  • Russia-Ukraine conflict, also currently quiet, also has the potential to boil over at any time,
  • Potential for the White House to enlist the help of Iran in the battle against ISIS in return for easing the attempts to end that country’s nuclear ambitions,
  • Continuing crisis at the US-Mexico border,
  • Confusion over the state of the leadership in North Korea,
  • The Ebola breakout that remains active and that appears to be spreading.

Courtesy of Econoday this is the chart of the US economic data to be released during the week of October 13, 2014 along with scheduled speeches by members of the Federal Reserve. The chart below also includes the upcoming treasury auction calendar!

Tuesday Oct 14
Stocks & futures open, bonds closed

Charles Evans Speaks
12:30 PM ET

Redbook
[Report][Bullet
8:55 AM ET
PPI-FD
[Report][Star]
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
[Report][Star]
8:30 AM ET
Beige Book
[djStar]
2:00 PM ET
Weekly Bill SettlementCharles Plosser Speaks
8:00 AM ET

Jobless Claims
[Report][Star]
8:30 AM ET

Esther George Speaks
12:15 PM ET

Dennis Lockhart Speaks
12:30 PM ET

James Bullard Speaks
1:00 PM ET

Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks
2:30 PM ET

Money Supply
[Bullet
4:30 PM ET
Housing Starts
[Report][Star]
8:30 AM ET

Janet Yellen Speaks
8:35 AM ET

Equity Settlement
10-16-14
Equity Settlement
10-17-14
Equity Settlement
10-20-14
Equity Settlement
10-21-14
Equity Settlement
10-22-14

__________________________________________

Written by Michael Haltman, President of Hallmark Abstract Service, New York.

HAS is a provider of title insurance in New York State for residential and commercial real estate transactions specializing in the areas of New York City, Long Island and Westchester.

Remember that you have the right to choose your own title company (click here to learn more)!

If you have any questions you can reach Michael by email at mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com.

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