U.S. Economic Statistic Estimates and Coronavirus Impact: Week of March 23, 2020

By | March 21, 2020

This coming week we will likely begin to see some of the economic impact that the coronavirus is inflicting on the U.S. economy.

The forecasts below were generated by Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and seven-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of March 23
March 23
Chicago Fed National Activity Index – February
-0.60
-0.25
March 24
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index
45.0
50.7
43.0
PMI Services Flash Index
45.0
49.4
42.0
New Home Sales – February
740K
764
750.0
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
-4
-2
March 25
Durable Goods Orders – February
-1.0%
-0.2
-0.7
FHFA Housing Price Index – January
0.5%
0.6
March 26
Initial Unemployment Claims
1000K
281
775
International Trade in Goods – February
-$62.0B
-65.5
Wholesale Inventories (a) – February
-0.5%
-0.4
GDP – Q4 (f)
2.1%
2.1
2.1
March 27
Personal Income – February
0.4%
0.6
0.4
Personal Spending – February
0.2
0.2
0.2
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – March (f)
91.0
95.9
90.0
Week of March 30
March 30
Pending Home Sale Index – February
108.8
108.8
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
-7.0
1.2
March 31
S&P Case/Shiller Index – January
Ten City M/M
Ten City Y/Y
Twenty City M/M
0.1%
0.0
Twenty City M/M – SA
0.4
0.4
Twenty City Y/Y
3.1
2.9
Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q – SA
Chicago PMI – March
40.0
49.0
Consumer Confidence Index – March
120.0
130.7
April 1
ADP Employment Report – March
-360
183
ISM (Mfg) – March
43.5
50.1
Construction Spending – February
0.5%
1.8
Auto Sales* – March
15.2K
16.8
Car Sales
3.6
4.3
Truck Sales
11.6
12.6
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
April 2
Initial Unemployment Claims
International Trade – February
-$43.3B
-45.3
April 3
Nonfarm Payrolls – March
-350K
273
Private
-360
228
Unemployment
3.9%
3.5
Average Workweek
33.0HR
34.4
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.3
ISM Services – March
48.0
57.3

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