The U.S. Economy: Are Bonds Or Stocks Telling The True Story?

On the heels of this mornings employment report indicating jobs creation below even the most pessimistic economist forecast along with revisions lower to the prior months, why are the bond and stock markets telling two such very different stories?

This morning at 8:30AM the Employment Report was released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showing new jobs creation of +138,000 along with a downward revisions to the jobs created in prior months. Therefore, one needs to ask the following:

Is the euphoria over the future of the U.S. economy post-Trump election, the one that has the three major stock indexes at all-time highs correct and warranted?

Or is the 10-year bond yield that’s trending lower that’s potentially indicating fears of economic weakness telling a far different story?

Or, are stocks correct and the bond market is merely showing the impact of Federal Reserve intervention that has distorted yields artificially? Hmmmm….

As a former bond analyst and trader it’s been said in the past that bond money is the smart money, but post-financial crisis we are living through different times.

While these two charts show just how these two markets are diverging, where we go in the future is anyones guess including the economists who all got todays number completely wrong…

One-Year Charts: The 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. The S&P 500 Index

10-year treasury bond yield chart

S&P 500 1 year chart

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