Long Island is going Phase 1 tomorrow, but what about New York City?
In order to return to any semblance of normalcy, the real estate industry in the New York City/Long Island/Westchester region is anxiously waiting for Phase 2 of the coronavirus economy reopening to be implemented!
So c’mon Phase 1 because, as the players and fans at the Craps table will scream, ‘Baby needs a new pair of shoes’! Or if not shoes, the ability to run a business involved in the real estate sector of the economy!
And once Phase 1 begins, it is then supposed to be 2 weeks after that when Phase 2 will hopefully be phased in.
It’s Phase 2 that will ‘…allow a wider range of businesses to reopen, including storefront retailers and businesses in the professional services, finance and insurance, administrative support, and real-estate and rental-leasing industries. Under the current guidelines, no region will eligible to begin Phase Two until at least May 30…’
Currently NYC has hit 4/7 and Long Island 5/7 of the metrics necessary to be hit in order for Phase 1 to be enacted.
NYC is missing an appropriate contact tracing capability and it is just below the 30% level for the availability of hospital beds and ICU beds.
Long Island also needs to shore-up its contact tracing capability, and has not yet met the criteria of an adequate decline in hospital deaths, although opening to Phase 1 has been scheduled for May, 27, 2020.
Impact of Coronavirus Shutdown for the Real Estate/Mortgage Industry
On some level determining the ultimate impact from coronavirus on real estate attorneys, real estate brokers, traditional lenders, hard money lenders, commercial mortgage lenders, building owners (impact will vary by property type), homeowners, CRE buyers, homebuyers, investors, spec builders, developers etc. is akin to gauging the impact of Martians landing on earth.
Individual bankruptcies, foreclosures, forbearance, mandated rent holidays, limitations on evictions and more are some of the ancillary issues that will likely and severely impact the market and the people involved.
Real estate-related businesses such as inspection firms, surveying firms, municipal search firms, interior design, exterminating, renovation, architecture, furniture, title insurance and many, many more, have seen revenues decline to a point where some may not be in a position to continue as a going concern.
PPP loans have helped firms to maintain staff for 2-months, but that has done nothing from the standpoint of revenue. And, in New York, rent can often be greater than the 25% allowed for rent expenses.
While the pent-up demand for housing is hopefully waiting in the wings for the floodgates to open, the reaction of the public when it comes to the comfort level of going out in public remains to be seen.
Will there be a rush of current owners living in the density of New York City pursuing property in the relative fresh air provided by Long Island and Westchester?
On the other hand, will there be a rush of people who always wanted to own in NYC who now sense that there may be a softening in prices due to the prior statement?
We, as do you, face a plethora of unknown outcomes where we can hope for the best and continue to run our businesses in the manner to which our clients have become accustomed.
And, at the end of the day, the Hallmark Abstract Service family sincerely hopes that this unimaginable episode has left you, your family and all of those close to you as healthy and unscathed as possible! Because, ultimately, that is what really matters!
I believe the following phrase, that a good friend recently made me aware of, should be a guiding light for us all as we seek to navigate what will be Uncertainty with a capital U!
The Serenity Prayer
“God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.”
Mike Haltman, CEO
Hallmark Abstract Service