Tag Archives: monetary policy

The Central Bank Casino…BOJ, Fed, Real Estate And Mortgage Rates!

Zirp and Nirp

(Note: This article also appears at econintersect.com) This week both the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will be meeting to chart the future course of interest rates! In the U.S. where prior to the recent small interest rate hike ZIRP or zero interest rate policy had been in place, speculation over whether the Fed will raise or stand […]

Insurer Survivability: (More) Unintended Consequences Of ZIRP And NIRP!

ZIRP AND NIRP! For potential property buyers and current owners of property who are thinking of refinancing a mortgage, ZIRP has been, and NIRP may someday be, fantasticmonetary policies! ZIRP? NIRP? For those unfamiliar these acronyms are not the sounds an infant might make but instead are deadly serious policies that are being used by central bankers around the world in […]

Are German Bonds Now The Risk-Free Rate?

bond spreads

As all of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) fans out there know, the value representing the ‘risk-free’ rate is a critical data point! But for those who may be unfamiliar with CAPM, it’s ‘a model that describes the relationship between risk and expected return and that is used in the pricing of risky securities.’ […]

The Yield Curve: Is A U.S. Recession On The Horizon?

treasury yield curve,recession signals,economy

In my first job as a municipal bond analyst and strategist a key datapoint to consider was the steepness of the yield curve! When the curve was at its steepest, investors would be ‘getting paid’ in the form of higher yields to assume the price and reinvestment risk of moving out to longer maturities. When flat, meaning […]

Last Weeks Economic Acronyms: PIIGS, BDI, FOMC!

EU,PIIGS

How many acronyms will fit in one article title? For this weeks articles we’ll cap it at three! Many of this past weeks articles at the Hallmark Abstract Service blog focused on the global economy in conjunction with the turmoil in financial markets around the world. These three acronyms played a critical role… PIIGS: These are the five […]

Another Negative Century Milestone, 300, Pierced By The Baltic Dry Index (BDI)!

Before you ask yourself the question’ What is the Baltic Dry Index and why should I care if it drops?’, consider… Consider that the article titled ‘The Baltic Dry Index Falls To Historic Lows! One Question Though….‘ was written only ONE MONTH AGO when the BDI broke 400 for the first time ever (Note: The peak of […]

Oy Vey! Text Of Today’s Congressional Testimony From Janet Yellen…!

Janet Yellen,Federal Reserve,fed funds chart

Did Janet Yellen raise the fed funds rate in December only to turn around and lower it now? With the selloff in the equity market, sharp decline in the price of crude oil and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. and global economies, the LAST thing we need is for a crisis of confidence to develop concerning […]

Monday Morning Links: Why Are Stock Futures Down Over 300 Points*? (January 4, 2016)

As we head into 2016 the economic news out of China leaves something to be desired! And if China sneezes, does the rest of the world catch a cold? ‘Asian markets tumbled Monday on the first day of trading in 2016, with declines so steep in mainland China that authorities halted trading there for the […]

If Money-Printing Equals Inflation, Why Don’t We Have Any?

inflation,federal reserve balance sheet

Summary: Real estate and stocks have been doing very well but… Economics 101 says we should have inflation after the amount of money the Federal Reserve has put into the system! But we don’t and this article explains why… The global central banks have injected many trillions of dollars into their given economies looking for […]

Federal Reserve Gradualism: A Dangerous Game?

In a move many market participants felt was long overdue, at its most recent meeting the Fed raised the fed funds rate .25%! And, after parsing the language in Janet Yellen’s statement, the belief is that 2016 may see two or three more hikes of .25% each leaving the fed funds rate in the .75%-1% range at the end of […]