Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

Can U.S. Interest Rates Ever Rise?

historical U.S. inflation rate

While interest rates have risen from depths that saw the 10-year treasury yielding 1.36% on 7/3/16, to 2.25% today, given Fed plans to tighten and pledge to shrink its balance sheet should rates be even higher? The Fed will typically engage in the monetary policy of tightening and lift the Fed Funds rate when the two […]

Is The US Real Estate Market Facing A New, Post-Financial Crisis, Chapter Of Moral Hazard?

housing market moral hazard

With the US housing market having recouped most of its pre-financial crisis price levels (exceeded in some markets) in conjunction with the Federal Reserve having engaged in ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) for an extended period of time, is the market once again facing a moral hazard? First, how would one define moral hazard vis a vis the real […]

The Central Bank Casino…BOJ, Fed, Real Estate And Mortgage Rates!

Zirp and Nirp

(Note: This article also appears at econintersect.com) This week both the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will be meeting to chart the future course of interest rates! In the U.S. where prior to the recent small interest rate hike ZIRP or zero interest rate policy had been in place, speculation over whether the Fed will raise or stand […]

The Credit Suisse Fear Barometer Hits A Record High!

VIX,fear index

Summary: With the VIX near its lows why are there two so very different sides to the same coin? For those unfamiliar with the Credit Suisse Fear Barometer it is another metric for gauging investor angst and expectation! Knowledge Is Power – Francis Bacon To the everyday stock market watcher the most commonly used metric for […]

Insurer Survivability: (More) Unintended Consequences Of ZIRP And NIRP!

ZIRP AND NIRP! For potential property buyers and current owners of property who are thinking of refinancing a mortgage, ZIRP has been, and NIRP may someday be, fantasticmonetary policies! ZIRP? NIRP? For those unfamiliar these acronyms are not the sounds an infant might make but instead are deadly serious policies that are being used by central bankers around the world in […]

Are German Bonds Now The Risk-Free Rate?

bond spreads

As all of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) fans out there know, the value representing the ‘risk-free’ rate is a critical data point! But for those who may be unfamiliar with CAPM, it’s ‘a model that describes the relationship between risk and expected return and that is used in the pricing of risky securities.’ […]

The Yield Curve: Is A U.S. Recession On The Horizon?

treasury yield curve,recession signals,economy

In my first job as a municipal bond analyst and strategist a key datapoint to consider was the steepness of the yield curve! When the curve was at its steepest, investors would be ‘getting paid’ in the form of higher yields to assume the price and reinvestment risk of moving out to longer maturities. When flat, meaning […]

Last Weeks Economic Acronyms: PIIGS, BDI, FOMC!

EU,PIIGS

How many acronyms will fit in one article title? For this weeks articles we’ll cap it at three! Many of this past weeks articles at the Hallmark Abstract Service blog focused on the global economy in conjunction with the turmoil in financial markets around the world. These three acronyms played a critical role… PIIGS: These are the five […]

Oy Vey! Text Of Today’s Congressional Testimony From Janet Yellen…!

Janet Yellen,Federal Reserve,fed funds chart

Did Janet Yellen raise the fed funds rate in December only to turn around and lower it now? With the selloff in the equity market, sharp decline in the price of crude oil and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. and global economies, the LAST thing we need is for a crisis of confidence to develop concerning […]

Banks, Crude Oil, Mark-To-Market, The Federal Reserve And Yes, Real Estate!

Why you may be asking yourself is this title insurance guy incessantly writing about non-real estate related issues?  The answer is of course that the economy, and the real estate sector specifically, are all impacted by what is happening to the global economy. And this includes the oil industry, bank loans to the oil industry, high yield debt from oil industry related corporations and […]