Summary: A forecast is only as good as the forecaster making it but, if the 2015 forecast for the real estate market was in the form of a weather report, according to the Infographic in this article it would look like this…
Forecasts and predictions for any market are only as good as the forecaster or predictor making it, and even then it’s just an educated guess or worse!
I was saying to my wife only yesterday while watching an oil market pundit that I would love to have the time, energy and/or inclination to go back in time and dig out all of this ‘experts’ prior predictions. At $110/barrel was he saying we were going to $150 or at a pullback to $85 was he saying buy the dip?
And while I currently don’t have any of the three (time, energy and/or inclination), my background in the financial markets that led me to spend umpteen hours watching and listening does give me the experience to know the obvious… That these ‘expert’ predictions are only best guesses based on a specific set of data inputs.
As an aside, whatever he said then, he’s saying now that we will likely be languishing in the $60/barrel range or below for an extended period of time.
Specific inputs based on an analysts personal or professional biases:
- Some might be technical analysts basing their opinions on an interpretation of chart patterns.
- Others might use even more esoteric methods to develop forecasts such as the position of the moon and the stars.
- There are momentum players who will predict that what goes up will keep going up and conversely what goes down is actually the equivalent of a ‘falling knife’ that you don’t want to try and catch.
- We have true fundamental analysts who look deep into the variables and inner workings of a market or company before making predictions.
- Finally we have sell-side shills who have the proverbial ‘axe to grind’ making these forecasters some of the most dangerous to follow. These people and firms make money when people are buying things…whatever things they happen to be selling. Therefore selloffs only represent buying opportunities where the commodity or stock in question is now ‘on sale’. In other words if you liked Research In Motion, the old RIMM now BBRY, here…
|September 2008: $124.37|
…then you are going to love it at $9.84 today? Sorry, very bad example but you get the general idea.
Back to the real estate forecast for 2015
So now, getting back on topic, if a real estate forecast for 2015 was in the form of a weather report, this is what it would look like in an Infographic from the websiteHousehuntnetwork.com.
__________________________________________ Michael Haltman, President of Hallmark Abstract Service, New York. HAS is a provider of title insurance in New York State for residential and commercial real estate transactions specializing in the areas of New York City, Long Island and Westchester. For anyone either buying a property or refinancing, remember that although your attorney will likely recommend a title insurance provider, you always have the right to choose your own title company (click here to learn more)! If you have any questions you can reach Michael by email at firstname.lastname@example.org.Google+