Iran Nuclear Deal Analogy

A Nuclear Deal With Iran Appears To Be Imminent!

Here we (or is it I) go again mixing global politics with business.

But, in reality, isn’t business in a linked global economy and geopolitics basically intertwined?

After all with Greece facing debt repayment issues and the potential of being forced to leave the EU (My Big Fat Greek Analogy), markets around the world felt the pain from the uncertainty.

Today when it appears that a deal may have been struck (although the Greek Parliament must approve many of the details) allowing Greece to remain in the Eurozone, global markets are for the time being breathing a sigh of relief.

Iran Nuclear Deal

Would a deal that would unequivocally stop Iran from ever producing a nuclear weapon be a good thing? I think that few sane people would disagree with that!

But what about a tepid deal that on its surface, to an untrained diplomatic eye such as my own, seems to do little on the prevention front while rewarding Iran financially.

In 2014 the State Department website had this to say about Iran…

‘Designated as a State Sponsor of Terrorism in 1984, Iran continued its terrorist-related activity in 2014, including support for Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza, Lebanese Hizballah, and various groups in Iraq and throughout the Middle East. This year, Iran increased its assistance to Iraqi Shia militias, one of which is a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), in response to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) incursion into Iraq, and has continued to support other militia groups in the region. Iran also attempted to smuggle weapons to Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza. While its main effort focused on supporting goals in the Middle East, particularly in Syria, Iran and its proxies also continued subtle efforts at growing influence elsewhere including in Africa, Asia, and, to a lesser extent, Latin America. Iran used the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) to implement foreign policy goals, provide cover for intelligence operations, and create instability in the Middle East. The IRGC-QF is the regime’s primary mechanism for cultivating and supporting terrorists abroad…

Iran remains a state of proliferation concern. Despite multiple UNSCRs requiring Iran to suspend its sensitive nuclear proliferation activities, Iran continued to be in noncompliance with its international obligations regarding its nuclear program.‘ (State Department website)

So assuming that little has changed in Iran since 2014 and in fact may have gotten worse, is a deal made that on its surface appears to have included a plethora of concessions that may or may not actually stop that nation from acquiring nuclear weapons actually a good thing for the region and the world?

Loose Iran Analogy

Or is such a deal, to make a loose analogy, like leaving the keys to your house with your neighbor so that he can watch it while you are away on vacation?

This unfortunately is the same neighbor who has professed his hatred for you, his desire for you to move out of the area and who has promised if given the chance to destroy your house both inside and out!

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, not unlike your neighbor, has consistently supported the chants of ‘Death to America’ and ‘Death to Israel’.

Concessions To Iran

Here are three of the concessions reportedly being made in order to secure a deal with Iran.

…As world powers work to secure a final deal, Iranian sources are indicating that the United States has caved on most major issues, including the timing of sanctions relief, the length of the deal, and arms sales to Tehran.

Initially, U.S official had promised that sanctions would not be lifted until Iran provided full access to its military and non-military nuclear sites. However, this demand appears to be off the table as talks begin to close.

The Iranians also claim that the United States will sign a deal that only hinders the country’s nuclear program for a limited amount of time. Officials in Obama administration had insisted just weeks ago that any deal would be permanent…

…The most controversial concession purported to have been allowed by the Obama administration is the lifting of a United Nations resolution banning arms sales to Tehran, according to the country’s Fars News Agency…‘ (Source)

So is a bad deal better than no deal? I suppose that will remain to be seen!

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