Economic Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 25 And July 2, 2018!

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Whether corporate earnings, sporting events, economic statistics or, of course, the weather, forecasting can most certainly be an inexact science!

As discussed in this space previously, ‘Predicting The Weather, Mortgage Rates, Commodity Prices Or Most Anything Else Is Not For The Faint Of Heart!‘.

That said, and for better or worse, many rely on these forecasts in their decision-making process. Therefore, it is incumbent on individuals to find those forecasters who they feel have been the most accurate and reliable over time.

Economic Indicators

In the area of the economy one of my go-to economists is Peter Morici from the University of Maryland, formerly Chief Economist of the United States International Trade Commission. Peter is very well credentialed (profile below), pragmatic, accurate and, as an aside, who also earned his Ph.D from SUNY/Albany.

These are his forecasts for various sectors of the economy over the next two weeks…

Forecast
  Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of June 25
June 25
Chicago Fed National Activity Index – May
0.40
0.34
0.37
New Home Sales – May
667K
662
665
Dallas Fed General Business Activity
26.8
26.8
37.0
June 26
S&P Case/Shiller Index – April
Twenty City M/M
0.8%
1.0
0.8
Twenty City M/M – SA
0.3
0.5
0.5
Twenty City Y/Y
6.6
6.8
6.8
Consumer Confidence
128.0
128.0
128.1
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
16
16
16
June 27
Durable Goods Orders – May
-0.8%
-1.6
-0.6
International Trade in Goods – May
-$69.8B
-68.2
-69.0
Wholesale Inventories – May (a)
0.3%
0.1
0.3
Pending Home Sales Index – May
107.1
106.4
107.1
June 28
GDP – Q1 (f)
2.2%
2.2
2.2
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
1.9
1.9
Initial Jobless Claims
222K
218
220
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
25
29
June 29
Personal Income – May
0.4%
0.3
0.4
Personal Spending
0.4
0.6
0.4
Chicago PMI – June
60.1
62.7
60.0
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – June (r)
99.3
99.3
99.2
Week of July 2
July 2
PMI Manufacturing Index – June
54.6
54.6
ISM (Mfg) – June
58.0
58.7
Construction Spending – May
0.5%
1.8
July 3
Auto Sales* – June
17.1M
16.91
Car Sales
5.5
5.44
Truck Sales
11.6
11.48
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
July 5
ADP Employment Report – July
185K
178
Initial Unemployment Claims
222K
218
PMI Services Index
56.5
56.5
ISM Services – June
58.0
58.6
July 6
Nonfarm Payrolls – June
190K
223
Private
185
218
Manufacturing
18
18
Unemployment
3.8%
3.8
Average Workweek
34.5HR
34.5
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.3
International Trade – May
-$47.0B
-46.2
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.

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