Economic Data That Could Move Bond Yields And Mortgage Rates – Week Of July 9th And 16th

forecasts photo

Whether it’s what a company may earn in a given quarter, who will win the 8th at Belmont, if it will rain today or of course the economy, forecasting and prediction are inexact sciences!

As discussed in this space previously, ‘Predicting The Weather, Mortgage Rates, Commodity Prices Or Most Anything Else Is Not For The Faint Of Heart!‘.

That said, and for better or worse, many rely on these forecasts in their decision-making process. Therefore, it is incumbent on individuals to find those forecasters who they feel have been the most accurate and reliable over time.

Economic Indicators

In the area of the economy one of the go-to economists is Peter Morici from the University of Maryland, formerly Chief Economist of the United States International Trade Commission. Peter is very well credentialed, pragmatic and, as an aside, who also earned his Ph.D from SUNY/Albany my alma mater.

These are his forecasts for various sectors of the economy over the next two weeks…

                                                                              
Forecast
Prior Observation
     Consensus
Week of July 9
July 9
Consumer Credit – May
$12.0B
9.3
12.4
July 10
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – June
106.5
107.8
106.0
JOLTS – May
6.700
6.698
6.700
July 11
Producer Producer Index – June
0.1%
0.5
0.2
Core PPI (less food, energy and trade services
0.2
0.1
0.2
Wholesale Inventories – May
0.5%
0.5
0.5
July 12
Initial Unemployment Claims
225K
231
225
Consumer Price Index – June
0.1%
0.2
0.2
Core CPI
0.2
0.2
0.2
Treasury Budget – June
-$135.0B
-146.8
July 13
Export Prices – June
0.1%
0.6
0.3
Import Prices
-0.2
0.6
0.2
Import Prices, ex-Energy
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)
98.2
98.2
98.2
Week of July 16
July 16
Retail Sales – June
0.8%
0.8
Retail Sales, ex Autos
0.4
0.9
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gasoline
0.5
0.8
NY Fed Manufacturing Index
22.5
25.0
Business Inventories – May
0.4%
0.3
July 17
Industrial Production – June
0.5%
-0.1
Capacity Utilization
78.3
77.9
Manufacturing
0.6
-0.7
NAHB Index – July
70
68
July 18
Housing Starts – June
1.320M
1.350
Building Permits
1.340
1.301
July 19
Philadelphia Fed Survey
22.0
21.5
Leading Indicators
0.2%
0.3

Michael Haltman, President
Hallmark Abstract Service
Phone: (646) 741-6101
Email: mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *