Category Archives: interest rates

Why Is The 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Still Sub-3%?

10-year treasury yield chart

The two-pronged Federal Reserve mandate is to control inflation within a pre-determined range and maximize U.S. employment! And from all observations the economy is fulfilling both with the unemployment rate reported July 2018 at 3.9% and the July CPI rising .2% with an annual increase in the core rate of 2.4%. If the economy is […]

The Federal Reserve Rate Hike And Its Impact On Consumer Debt!

Aggregate household debt balances

Yesterday the Federal Reserve raised its key fed funds rate by .25% and signaled that they would likely raise two more times in 2018! For consumers who have a record amount of debt outstanding (a level over $13 trillion that’s $280 billion higher than the 2008 peak and 16.2% above the 2013 trough), the good […]

1st Quarter GDP Growth Disappoints And Non-Farm Payrolls Surprise To The Upside…Imagine That, The Forecasts Were Wrong!

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

In the past the Hallmark Abstract Service blog has opined on the professionals whose job it is to forecast a variety of different outcomes whether economic or something else, and for better or worse the tendency for them to miss the mark that they have predicted! The article ‘Predicting The Weather, Mortgage Rates, Commodity Prices Or Most Anything Else Is […]

Flattening Treasury Yield Curve And Recession: This Time Is Different?

bond market photo

Economic theory has always held that an inverted U.S. treasury yield curve could be used as a reliable signal for a recession looming on the horizon. According to the Federal Reserve, however, this time is different! This Time Is Different “How different the position of the investor today!” was the headline for an ad that ran […]

U.S. Economic Strength: What Is The ‘Smart Money’ Telling Us?

US dollar continues to weaken

(Note: This article has been featured in the LinkedIn Channels Banking & Finance, Economy and Editor’s Picks) Smart Money – If you’ve ever bet on the ponies the ‘smart money’ will typically be the money wagered right before the betting windows closed. Theoretically these are the people who may have an inside track about the horses […]

Can U.S. Interest Rates Ever Rise?

historical U.S. inflation rate

While interest rates have risen from depths that saw the 10-year treasury yielding 1.36% on 7/3/16, to 2.25% today, given Fed plans to tighten and pledge to shrink its balance sheet should rates be even higher? The Fed will typically engage in the monetary policy of tightening and lift the Fed Funds rate when the two […]

Rising Rates Won’t Kill The Stock Market Rally, But What About Real Estate? (Chart)

Will an increase in borrowing costs bring the hammer down on homebuyers or, at these levels, is that concern much ado about nothing?

With the Janet Yellen-led Fed raising the fed funds target range while signaling more hikes may be in the immediate future, will rising rates kill the stock market rally? And, by the same token, will the rising mortgage rates that will accompany the Federal Reserve tightening policy bring the hammer down on the real estate market through […]

Post-Election: Exuberance In Stocks, Carnage In Bonds And An Unknown For Real Estate!

Ten-year Treasury Bond Yield chart

Depending on your perspective as an investor in stocks, bonds or real estate, the post-election action in the financial markets has either been phenomenally great or dismally destructive! Of course if your portfolio is well diversified as the experts suggest that it should be, then that makes for an entirely different story altogether. Bond Market […]

Federal Reserve Gradualism: A Dangerous Game?

In a move many market participants felt was long overdue, at its most recent meeting the Fed raised the fed funds rate .25%! And, after parsing the language in Janet Yellen’s statement, the belief is that 2016 may see two or three more hikes of .25% each leaving the fed funds rate in the .75%-1% range at the end of […]

Fed Decision: It’s The Final Countdown (Video)

Fed December rate decision,interest rates,Janet Yellen,FOMC

Summary: Fed rate hikes, like eating Lay’s potato chips, are rarely done just once. Will the Fed raise rates tomorrow as expected and then what will be its plan going forward? ‘Fed Decision: It’s The Final Countdown (Video)‘ Today the Fed begins to deliberate about what will likely be the first interest rate hike in nine […]