Category Archives: economy

Beware The Phrase That ‘Stocks Are On Sale’!

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Once again stock market investors have borne witness to a significant selloff, occurring soon after equities reached record highs! So why, you may be asking yourself, is the owner of a title insurance company writing and opining about investing in any asset class other than real estate? Because, said owner needs to vent a little […]

Rising Rate Of Subprime Credit Card Delinquencies And Charge-offs…An Economic Canary In The Coal Mine?

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As a title insurance company, our business relies on a robust commercial and residential real estate market that’s being spurred on by a strong consumer! A consumer who’s confident about the country’s (and their own) economic prospects! Certainly, we have seen good recent economic growth as measured by GDP, but post-tax cut have we already seen […]

Treasury Yield Curve And The Fed Rate Decision: Is The Federal Reserve Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place?

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The conventional wisdom among fixed income market seers is that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten credit, raising the fed funds target rate multiple more times before they are finished! This is due to a stronger economy, inflation under control and unemployment at low levels suggesting full employment. This scenario presents the Fed with a […]

10-Years Beyond The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy: Seven Points To Ponder!

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Do you remember where you were on September 15, 2008, the day that Lehman failed unleashing the unintended consequences of a global financial crisis that began to foment and then snowball? Consequential events may not always appear to be so, and as Lehman Brothers was allowed to go under most of us may not have initially […]

Economic Data That Could Move Bond Yields And Mortgage Rates – Week Of July 9th And 16th

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Whether it’s what a company may earn in a given quarter, who will win the 8th at Belmont, if it will rain today or of course the economy, forecasting and prediction are inexact sciences! As discussed in this space previously, ‘Predicting The Weather, Mortgage Rates, Commodity Prices Or Most Anything Else Is Not For The Faint Of […]

Economic Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 25 And July 2, 2018!

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Whether corporate earnings, sporting events, economic statistics or, of course, the weather, forecasting can most certainly be an inexact science! As discussed in this space previously, ‘Predicting The Weather, Mortgage Rates, Commodity Prices Or Most Anything Else Is Not For The Faint Of Heart!‘. That said, and for better or worse, many rely on these […]

Inflation And Mortgage Rates (Charts)

The Federal Reserve has two fundamental mandates: maximum employment and stable prices with an upper limit it sets for an acceptable inflation rate! When employment reaches a level that’s known as full and a strong economy results in a shortage of available qualified workers, upward wage pressure can cause the inflation rate to rise. Similarly, when commodity prices […]

1st Quarter GDP Growth Disappoints And Non-Farm Payrolls Surprise To The Upside…Imagine That, The Forecasts Were Wrong!

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

In the past the Hallmark Abstract Service blog has opined on the professionals whose job it is to forecast a variety of different outcomes whether economic or something else, and for better or worse the tendency for them to miss the mark that they have predicted! The article ‘Predicting The Weather, Mortgage Rates, Commodity Prices Or Most Anything Else Is […]

Yield Curve Flattening: What Does This Mean For The Real Estate Market?

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Update: Mortgage Rates Jump to 7-Year Highs May 15 2018, 4:02PM Mortgage rates spiked in a big way today, bringing some lenders to the highest levels in nearly 7 years (you’d need to go back to July 2011 to see worse). That heavy-hitting headline is largely due to the fact that rates were already fairly close […]

Talking Heads, Politicians, Economists and Fund Managers Tout Tax Cuts, Increased Consumer Spending And U.S. Economic Growth Of 3%-4%!

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But, What If All Of These ‘Experts’ Are Wrong? Many point to the fact that 3%-4% U.S. (or even better) GDP growth may be just around the corner. Some wholeheartedly believe it while others may be somewhat skeptical. For them, however, having it occur would be beneficial to their clients and ultimately them. But at the same […]