Since the worst days of the economic crisis in 2008-2009 the statistics presented by the media concerning the level of new foreclosure filings in New York have indicated that borrowers are on the mend and that the tidal-wave effect of the financial crisis was over!
But is this actually correct? For those of us whose businesses depend on a healthy economy and by extension a healthy real estate market, we certainly hope that it is.
However, in the spirit of presenting all of the data that we analyze concerning future trends, one source predicts that there are storm clouds on the horizon in the form of the number of pre-foreclosure notices that have been sent to delinquent owners of property nationally and in New York City and the two counties of Long Island.
As with any data from a third party we cannot certify with 100% confidence the accuracy of the numbers presented, but never-the-less these charts paint a somewhat concerning picture.
The first chart shows the number of pre-foreclosure filings between 2010 and 2013. With that number rising over time how does the author of the article explain that actual foreclosure activity has not?
‘…I am often asked this question: Haven’t many of these delinquent mortgages been resolved – either through foreclosure, short sale, or the borrower becoming current on the mortgage? When I answer “No,” I am greeted with skepticism. This is completely understandable.
The reason is quite simple – servicers do not foreclose on seriously delinquent borrowers throughout the entire NYC metro area. Completed foreclosures have actually declined rather dramatically throughout the nation in the past two years. The difference is that in the NYC metro, the servicers have not been foreclosing since the spring of 2009…‘
The article also presents institutional research regarding the level of mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures and real estate taken-back for metropolitan areas around the country.
These numbers, if accurate, are also quite concerning particularly when you consider the the fact that so few cases have been resolved. The reason for concern is of course because at some point, they likely will have to be.
After examining the chart below a link to the entire article is provided that will go into a deeper analysis of the statistics that are presented.
The article, ‘The Coming Mortgage Delinquency Disaster‘, can be read in its entirety at Advisor Perspectives here.