Tag Archives: yield curve steepness

Flattening Treasury Yield Curve And Recession: This Time Is Different?

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Economic theory has always held that an inverted U.S. treasury yield curve could be used as a reliable signal for a recession looming on the horizon. According to the Federal Reserve, however, this time is different! This Time Is Different “How different the position of the investor today!” was the headline for an ad that ran […]

The Yield Curve: Is A U.S. Recession On The Horizon?

treasury yield curve,recession signals,economy

In my first job as a municipal bond analyst and strategist a key datapoint to consider was the steepness of the yield curve! When the curve was at its steepest, investors would be ‘getting paid’ in the form of higher yields to assume the price and reinvestment risk of moving out to longer maturities. When flat, meaning […]