Whether corporate earnings, sporting events, economic statistics or, of course, the weather, forecasting can most certainly be an inexact science!
As discussed in this space previously, ‘Predicting The Weather, Mortgage Rates, Commodity Prices Or Most Anything Else Is Not For The Faint Of Heart!‘.
That said, and for better or worse, many rely on these forecasts in their decision-making process. Therefore, it is incumbent on individuals to find those forecasters who they feel have been the most accurate and reliable over time.
Economic Indicators
In the area of the economy one of my go-to economists is Peter Morici from the University of Maryland, formerly Chief Economist of the United States International Trade Commission. Peter is very well credentialed (profile below), pragmatic, accurate and, as an aside, who also earned his Ph.D from SUNY/Albany.
These are his forecasts for various sectors of the economy over the next two weeks…
|
Forecast
|
Prior Observation
|
Consensus | ||
|
Week of June 25
|
||||
|
June 25
|
||||
|
Chicago Fed National Activity Index – May
|
0.40
|
0.34
|
0.37
|
|
|
New Home Sales – May
|
667K
|
662
|
665
|
|
|
Dallas Fed General Business Activity
|
26.8
|
26.8
|
37.0
|
|
|
June 26
|
||||
|
S&P Case/Shiller Index – April
|
||||
|
Twenty City M/M
|
0.8%
|
1.0
|
0.8
|
|
|
Twenty City M/M – SA
|
0.3
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
|
|
Twenty City Y/Y
|
6.6
|
6.8
|
6.8
|
|
|
Consumer Confidence
|
128.0
|
128.0
|
128.1
|
|
|
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
|
|
June 27
|
||||
|
Durable Goods Orders – May
|
-0.8%
|
-1.6
|
-0.6
|
|
|
International Trade in Goods – May
|
-$69.8B
|
-68.2
|
-69.0
|
|
|
Wholesale Inventories – May (a)
|
0.3%
|
0.1
|
0.3
|
|
|
Pending Home Sales Index – May
|
107.1
|
106.4
|
107.1
|
|
|
June 28
|
||||
|
GDP – Q1 (f)
|
2.2%
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
|
|
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
||
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
222K
|
218
|
220
|
|
|
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
|
25
|
29
|
||
|
June 29
|
||||
|
Personal Income – May
|
0.4%
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
|
|
Personal Spending
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
0.4
|
|
|
Chicago PMI – June
|
60.1
|
62.7
|
60.0
|
|
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – June (r)
|
99.3
|
99.3
|
99.2
|
|
|
Week of July 2
|
||||
|
July 2
|
||||
|
PMI Manufacturing Index – June
|
54.6
|
54.6
|
||
|
ISM (Mfg) – June
|
58.0
|
58.7
|
||
|
Construction Spending – May
|
0.5%
|
1.8
|
||
|
July 3
|
||||
|
Auto Sales* – June
|
17.1M
|
16.91
|
||
|
Car Sales
|
5.5
|
5.44
|
||
|
Truck Sales
|
11.6
|
11.48
|
||
|
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
|
||||
|
July 5
|
||||
|
ADP Employment Report – July
|
185K
|
178
|
||
|
Initial Unemployment Claims
|
222K
|
218
|
||
|
PMI Services Index
|
56.5
|
56.5
|
||
|
ISM Services – June
|
58.0
|
58.6
|
||
|
July 6
|
||||
|
Nonfarm Payrolls – June
|
190K
|
223
|
||
|
Private
|
185
|
218
|
||
|
Manufacturing
|
18
|
18
|
||
|
Unemployment
|
3.8%
|
3.8
|
||
|
Average Workweek
|
34.5HR
|
34.5
|
||
|
Average Hourly Earnings
|
0.2%
|
0.3
|
||
|
International Trade – May
|
-$47.0B
|
-46.2
|
||
|
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.
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