What will the 10-year Treasury Note be yielding on September 19, 2014

That’s a very good question but, utilizing the US Economic Calendar for the week of September 15, 2014, there may be some clues!

The economic calendar of next weeks key statistical releases holds what may be some serious clues concerning the strength of the US economy and the direction that interest rates may move both in the near and intermediate term.

And by extension, any move up or down in government rates will have an impact on the mortgage market and the real estate market as well.

Current Yield

The 10-year US treasury note is currently yielding 2.60%, up from 2.43% at the same time last week.

This move up in rates (see graph above) could be due to a few different things. The first is that market participants may feel that the Fed may have the impetus to raise rates due to a belief that the US economy is strengthening, perhaps that inflation is heating up or that the flight to quality trade based on geopolitical angst is losing steam.

The geopolitical possibility, based on the list below, is certainly not the case at this point in time!

The US Economic Calendar

The economic information scheduled for release will provide investors and businesses with both anecdotal evidence about the direction that the US economyis heading along with actual data about its current condition.

In the upcoming week where economic data releases are somewhat robust, some of the headline reports that will be most closely scrutinized by market participants, the Fed, politicians and investors includes the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts and the Philly Fed Survey.

There are no scheduled speeches by members of the Federal Reserve although impromptu comments or remarks can potentially occur at any time.

And finally, as has been the case for some time now, the markets will also be closely watching geopolitical hotspots that have the potential for serious flare-ups with global implications.

Currently on the front-burner geopolitically are the following crises, some with conditions that have changed over the past week and others that remain static. It is also a list that unfortunately continues to grow:

• How will the US and any international coalition deal with the spread of ISIS or ISIL, the terrorist organization that makes al-Qaeda seem tame,
• Israel-Hamas conflict,
• Russia-Ukraine conflict and ceasefire,
• Sanctions on Russia,
• Russia test-firing an ICBM,
• Continuing crisis at the US-Mexico border,
• The Ebola breakout is off the front pages but remains active having the potential to spread,

Courtesy of Econoday this is the chart of the US economic data to be released during the week of September 15, 2014 along with scheduled speeches by members of the Federal Reserve. The chart below also includes the upcoming treasury auction calendar!

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Written by Michael Haltman, President of Hallmark Abstract Service, New York.

HAS is a provider of title insurance in New York State for residential and commercial real estate transactions specializing in the areas of New York City, Long Island and Westchester.

Remember that you have the right to choose your own title company (click here to learn more)!

If you have any questions you can reach Michael by email at mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com.