Recession? History Says…

By | December 19, 2022

Recession: Are past results useful indicators of future performance?

Consider A Recessions Length When Compared to the ‘Real Rates’ of Bonds on the Day the Treasury Yield Curve Inverts…

The current scenario does not bode well for the U.S. economy!


– An inverted yield curve exists when longer-term interest rates are lower than near-term rates.

– Real Rates are the bond’s yield – the inflation rate)

‘Fed researchers found ‘the length and severity of a recession was *inversely* correlated to the REAL 10-Year US treasury yield at the time of the yield curve inversion. i.e. the lower the real 10-Year US Treasury yield at the time of the inversion, the worse the recession.

In our current case, the real rate of the 10-year treasury (yield minus inflation) was a MINUS 5% at the time the yield curve inverted. In the prior cases, it had never been negative.’

This would indicate the economy is facing a difficult road ahead! (Puru Saxena


That’s the bad news, but if you’re buying commercial or residential real estate in New York there is some good news…

Remember that all title insurance is NOT the same, and it’s your right to choose the company you would like to work with!

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Read about key differentiating factors among New York title insurance providers, in the article ‘Are New York Title Insurance Providers All The Same?’ here

Have questions? Reach out to Hallmark Abstract Service at (646) 741-6101 or send us an email at

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